Major Averages Set Fresh Intraday Lows

Stocks are seeing additional selling pressure in late morning trading on Monday after posting substantial gains in the previous session. Weakness in the financial markets is once again fueling the sell off, as investors have shrugged off a better than expected report on existing home sales.

Bank and brokerage stocks are seeing significant selling pressure after Fitch Ratings put AIG's (AIG) credit ratings on negative watch. The S&P Bank Index is down 2.4 percent, while the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index is falling 2.3 percent. Health insurance, steel and disk drive stocks are lower as well. The Morgan Stanley Healthcare Payor Index is down 2.7 percent, the Amex Steel Index is down 2.4 percent and the Amex Disk Drive Index is down 2.1 percent. The major averages have continued to show weakness in recent trading, falling to fresh intraday lows in the past few minutes. The Dow is currently down 140.04 at 11,488.02, the Nasdaq is down 39.58 at 2,375.13 and the S&P 500 is down 16.14 at 1,276.06. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Euro declines to new multi-month low versus Canadian dollar

The European common currency fell to a fresh multi-month low of 1.5433 against its Canadian counterpart on Monday morning in New York. This may be compared to last Friday's North American session closing value of 1.5486. If the pair drifts further lower, the near term support level is seen around 1.5316. Currently, the euro-loonie pair is quoted at 1.5439.

Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Bank of England's Bean Says Economy Will Recover as Commodity Prices Stabilize

CEP News) - Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said he expects the British economy to recover as commodity prices stabilize. Speaking in an interview with the BBC following a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bean said he nevertheless continues to see the financial market turmoil as dragging on for some time. Bean was attending a meeting of top central bank officials over the weekend - one year after the start of the financial crisis that has led to more than $500 billion in losses and writedowns - to discuss how to prevent such a collapse from happening again.

Indian market retreats from higher levels

Monday, the Indian market ended almost flat after paring gains in the afternoon session. The market opened higher helped by a sharp retreat in the price of oil and firm cues from the rest of the global markets.

After trading firm in the opening session, the market pared the initial gains, led by selling pressure in Reliance and banking stocks at higher levels. Additionally, weak opening of the European markets weighed on investor sentiment. Stocks of real estate, banks and auto companies, which rose sharply in the morning, pared gains in the afternoon. Metal and power stocks led the decliners. Fertilizer stocks attracted fresh buying interest, while sugar stocks ended on a mixed note. Stocks of oil marketing companies rose, while shares of oil exploring and refining companies declined. Indian airline stocks ended firm following reports that the companies are contemplating a rise in fares by 10% to 20%, despite some possible downward revision in the price of aviation turbine fuel. There were reports that airlines could reduce fuel charges in-line with a retreat in the price of crude oil recently. Deccan Aviation (up 3.86%), Jagson Airlines (up 2.72%), SpiceJet (up 1.70%) rose sharply. After opening at 14,643, the BSE Sensex held to its ground firm in the morning, but pared gains to finish at near day's low. After touching an intra-day low of 14,416, the market finished slightly better at 14,450, up 49 points or 0.34% over Friday's close. Meanwhile, the S&P CNX Nifty ended at 4,335, up 0.18%. On the BSE, the mid-cap index closed up 0.25% and the broad-based BSE 500 index rose 0.30%, while the small-cap ended down 0.05%. The market breadth was slightly positive, with 1347 stocks gaining compared to 1287 stocks that declined. Seventeen out of 30 Sensex stock ended on a positive note. HDFC (up 3.63%), Mahindra & Mahindra (up 2.62%), DLF India (up 2.32%), Tata Motors (up 2.04%), Satyam Computers (up 1.79%), ICICI Bank (up 1.76%), Grasim Industries (up 1.47%), HDFC Bank (up 1.12%) were among the major gainers. However, Tata Power (down 2.84%), Jaiprakash Associates (down 2.74%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 2.05%), BHEL (down 1.60%), Tata Steel (down 1.49%), Sterlite Industries9down 1.32% and Maruti Suzuki (down 1.16%) declined sharply. Jet Airways rose 1.34% following reports the company could merge its wholly owned subsidiary, JetLite, into Jet Airways this fiscal year. ONGC declined 0.39% over reports that the company may not be able to acquire Russia-focused Imperial Energy Oil, as the Indian firm has already exhausted its investment limit. JK Lakshmi Cement advanced 2.85% over reports that the company is planning to invest Rs.1000 crore for setting up five ready-mix concrete plants by March 2009. Banco Products India rose 1.02% after the company proposed to merger Ganga Investments, a promoter group company with the company. Gujarat Apollo Industries surged up 4.64% after the company recommended a bonus issue to its shareholders in the ratio of 1:2. Hindustan Construction Company declined 0.32% following reports that HCC Real Estate, the real estate arm of the company would invest Rs.1000 crore to develop townships across India. Silver Smith India ended flat after the board of directors approved the company's proposal to acquire silver mines in various countries. Tata Motors ended up 2.04% despite protests from Trinamool Congress, which demanded 400 acres of land back, taken for the Tata Nano project in Singur, West Bengal. MM Forgings added 5.98% after the company fixed the record date for a proposed bonus issue to its shareholders. Ranbaxy Laboratories declined 2.05% following reports the Indian government will re-examine Daiichi Sankyo's plan to buy a controlling stake in the company. Era Infra Engineering drifted down 0.56% after the company bagged new orders worth Rs.42.35 crore from Delhi State Industrial and Infrastructure Development Corporation. Markets across the Asia-Pacific ended higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ended up 3.50%, China's Shanghai Composite index added 0.34%, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.68% and South Korea's KOSPI Composite index advanced 0.35%, while the Malaysian KLSE Composite index ended down 0.63%. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Estonia June trade deficit narrows

Estonia's trade deficit shrank from a year ago in June, a report by Statistics Estonia said Monday. This was mainly due to a slower fall in exports compared with imports. However, the trade gap widened from the previous month.

The trade deficit of this Baltic country narrowed to EEK (Estonian kroons) 3.5 billion in June from EEK 4.2 billion from the same period last year. This represented a decline of 15% from last year. In May, the deficit totaled EEK 2.9 billion, which was the smallest deficit since February 2006. Exports fell 1% in June, same as the fall in May. Total exports were valued at EEK 10.7 billion, down from EEK 11.7 billion in May. Total imports declined 5% in the month, compared with a 10% fall in the preceding month. Imports were valued EEK 14.3 billion, down from EEK 4.3 billion in May. Among the commodity groups, exports of machinery and transport equipment rose 5% to EEK 2.4 billion. This category had the highest share in total exports. And, exports of metal products rose 33% to EEK 1.6 billion. Exports increased 11% for agricultural products, 17% for raw materials and products of the chemical industry, and 24% for other items. However, exports of mineral products, the third most important item in the category, declined 27% in June. Exports also fell in double digits for wood and wood products, paper and related articles, textile products, transport equipment, and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Among the trading partners, exports to EU countries comprised 73% of the total exports. Exports to EU rose 5% to EEK 7.8 billion. Exports to the CIS countries, with a share of 13%, rose 28% to EEK 1.4 billion. Within import of goods, those of mineral products and raw materials from the chemical industry increased 16% each, while that of agricultural products was up 15%. On the other hand, import of machinery and equipment, the main imported item, fell 5% to EEK 3 billion. Imports of transport equipment and metals, the second largest category of imports, fell 28% and 6% respectively. Import of wood products was down 43%. Import of most other commodities declined in the month. Among the trading nations, imports from the EU, comprised 82% of all imports. Those from this region fell 1% to EEK 11.6 billion. Imports from the CIS countries, with a share of 11%, fell 25% to EEK 1.5 billion. It is widely viewed that the Estonian economy is in recession. In a report published last month, the statistical office said the Baltic economy posted a negative economic growth of 1.4% in the second quarter, which was the first annual decline since the third quarter of 1999, when the economy shrunk 1%. Analysts with Danske Bank had said the latest data showed that the Estonian economy was clearly sliding into recession, with the bank projecting the negative growth of 1% for this year, with the possibility of some rebound next year. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund warned in May that the Estonian economy was undergoing its first significant slowdown in nearly ten years and that growth for this year as a whole could be negative. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Oil advances on supply jitters

Crude prices top $115 a barrel amid tension between the U.S. and Russia.

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose above $115 a barrel Monday in Asia as tensions between the U.S. and Russia over the conflict in Georgia raised concerns about supplies in the region.

U.S. crude for October delivery was up 88 cents at $115.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract tumbled $6.59 on Friday to settle at $114.59 a barrel.

Tensions over Russia's brief war in the former Soviet republic Georgia has supported oil prices, as investors speculate whether oil-rich Russia will use supplies to punish the West.

Russia pulled the bulk of its troops and tanks out Friday under a cease-fire agreement, but built up its forces in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region. They also left other military posts at locations inside Georgia proper.

A U.S. Navy destroyer loaded with humanitarian aid reached Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi on Sunday, a move that a Russian general suggested would worsen tensions between the former Cold War foes.

The war erupted Aug. 7 as Georgia launched a massive artillery barrage targeting the Russian-backed separatist province of South Ossetia. Russian forces repelled the offensive and drove deep into Georgia, taking crucial positions across the country.

The U.S. and EU say both those moves violated Russia's commitments.

Weighing on crude prices was the U.S. dollar, which has risen as oil has declined since reaching a record of $147.27 on July 11.

"If the U.S. dollar is rising, commodities take a hit. It's been a huge factor." said Gavin Wendt, head of mining and resources research at consultancy Fat Prophets in Sydney.

Speaking at an economic conference Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he would "act as necessary" to control inflation comments which helped strengthen the dollar against rival currencies.

A falling dollar encourages selling from investors who bought crude oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency. The euro fell to $1.4746 on Monday.

Wendt said he expects oil prices to rise this year as global demand for energy, led by developing economies such as China and India, outstrip supplies.

"We may see this rally in the U.S. dollar continue in the short-term, but you have to differentiate between speculation and the underlying demand for commodities," Wendt said. "The majority of the increase in commodities over the last five years has been driven by demand from China and the emerging economies being so great that supplies haven't been able to keep up."

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.95 cent to $3.141 a gallon, while gasoline prices fell 0.83 cent to $2.86 a gallon. Natural gas futures increased 4.2 cents to $7.885 per 1,000 cubic feet. 

Denmark's August Consumer Confidence Indicator Lowest Since November 1990

Denmark's consumer confidence indicator plunged to its lowest level since November 1990 as indicators measuring the current economic situation and the expectation decreased.

Monday, the Statistics Denmark said the nation's consumer confidence indicator for the month of August declined to minus 12.2 from minus 9.7 in July. The indicator measuring general economic situation of the country over the last 12 months deteriorated to minus 22.8 from minus 17.3. Meanwhile, expectations over the next 12 months improved to minus 20.7 from minus 21.9. The indicator for household's financial situation over the previous 12 months fell to 2.5 from 6.7 in July. Similarly, the expectation index fell to 9.2 from 10.4. Further, the statistical office said consumers felt now is not the best time to make major purchases and the corresponding indicator slumped to minus 29.2 from minus 26.4. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

India gold futures down on strong dollar, weak crude

MUMBAI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - India's gold futures were down on Monday tracking the overseas markets, where a strong dollar and weak crude oil made investors pull out of precious metals.

"It is not a correction... it is a bearish trend altogether," said Subodh Gupta, analyst at Anand Rathi Commodities.

Foreign gold, that guides the local markets, slumped by one percent, losing its safe haven appeal as the dollar rose to a two-year high against the sterling and crude oil steadied after its biggest one-day drop since December 2004.

Gold generally moves in tandem with crude oil as the latter signals inflation, while the metal negates it. But the metal has an inverse relation with the dollar as the two compete for funds.

The benchmark October contract on the MCX was expected to trade within 11,530 rupees and 11,700 rupees per 10 grams, said Harish Galipelli, head of research at Karvy Comtrade Ltd.

Open interest for October gold was at 10,459 lots, down from 10,508 on Saturday. Volume in the last session was 1.99 kg. Silver futures were also expected to fall on the back of gold, analysts said.

September silver on MCX MSVU8 was expected to range within 19,500 rupees and 20,100 rupees per kg, Galipelli said.

The contract traded at 19,955 rupees.

ECB's Trichet, Fed's Miskin & Others Discuss Preventing Repeat of Market Crisis

CEP News) Frankfurt - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, former central bank officials and head economists all met in Jackson Hole, Wyoming over the weekend, one year since the start of the financial crisis that has led to more than $500 billion in losses and writedowns, to discuss how prevent such a collapse from happening again. Unfortunately, it seems that an agreement could not be made on how to do so. As noted in a speech at the end of the two-day conference, "it didn't settle a whole lot," Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fisher said. One of the main debates was how much responsibility for financial stability should be placed on the shoulders of the central banks, as well as how much help should be offered to struggling firms. ECB President Trichet and Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin were both defending the central banks and their results over the past year. Meanwhile, former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter argued that the central banks' enthusiam in assisting investors in trouble was "unhealthy and dangerous". Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Mario Draghi stressed that the additional responsibility off financial stability on the shoulders of monetary policy makers could limit the latter's ability to control inflation. Nevertheless, all participants were in agreement that a change in the system was forecoming, despite not agreeing on its form. However, one thing that all participants were united on was the fact that the crisis was not yet over and that ongoing turmoil was expected in both the housing and banking sectors. "It was clear from what was said that most people here don't believe the financial crisis is necessarily over or close to being over,'' Fischer said in his closing speech. By Todd Wailoo, This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved.

Japanese market ends up on Wall Street gains; stronger dollar

The Japanese market closed sharply higher on Monday, ending a four-day losing streak. Wall Street's sharp gains on Friday and a stronger U.S. dollar boosted investor sentiment.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed up 212.62 points or 1.68% at 12,878.66 after losing nearly 500 points during the previous four sessions. The broader Topix index of all the First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange advanced 22.83 points or 1.88% to finish at 1,239.25. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar traded in the upper 109-yen levels, down slightly from lower 110-yen levels in early trade. The local unit finished Friday's session at 109.10-109.11 yen. The U.S. dollar strengthened on gains in the U.S. stocks on Friday and a plunge in crude oil prices. The U.S. market rallied Friday on the back of a sharp drop in oil prices. A report that state-run Korea Development Bank is considering the acquisition of Lehman Brothers and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that inflationary pressures are likely to moderate also added to the positive sentiment. The Dow Industrials jumped 1.7% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%. Oil prices rose in late Asian session Monday, trading at $115.10 a barrel, up 51 cents, by 3:08 a.m. ET after plunging US$6.59 to US$114.59 a barrel on Friday as Russia pulled troops out of Georgia. On the economic front, traders had little to digest in terms of economic data. While banks and exporters led the gainers, mining stocks and trading houses fell on lower commodity prices. Major exporters rose on a weaker yen. Toyota Motor gained 2.9%, Sony and Honda Motor surged 4.4% each, machinery maker Komatsu advanced 0.9%, and Canon climbed 2.8%. Among financials, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group jumped 4.8% each, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group climbed 4.2%, top brokerage Nomura Holdings gained 3.0%, and Daiwa Securities Group added 2.3%. Sea transporters were higher, with Kawasaki Kisen rising 3.5%, Mitsui OSK Lines gaining 3.2%, and Nippon Yusen adding 2.4%. Oil and gas miner Inpex Holdings plunged 4.5% and Nippon Mining Holdings slipped 0.2%, while Nippon Oil rose 1.1% after oil prices plummeted Friday. Among trading houses, Marubeni fell 1.5%, Itochu lost 1.1%, Mitsubishi Corp declined 0.7%, and Mitsui & Co. gave away 0.9%. Sanyo Electric gained 1.4% after a report said that the company would disband Sanyo BPL, a 50-50 Indian joint venture that manufactures cathode-ray tube for televisions, in the current fiscal year to March 2009. Nippon Steel rose 1.4% after a Nikkei report said that the leading steelmaker and other major Japanese steelmakers plan to jointly acquire overseas mining rights for iron ore. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Swedish July Trade Balance Report Due

Monday, Sweden's trade balance report for July is scheduled to release from the statistical office at 3.30 am ET. In June, the Swedish trade surplus had narrowed to SEK8.2 billion from SEK10 billion in May. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the net trade surplus had stood at SEK6.6 billion in June compared to SEK7.5 billion of the previous month.

On an annual basis, export value of goods were up 5% to SEK102.2 billion in June. On the other hand, import value increased 12% to SEK94 billion. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Hungary June Retail Sales Forecast To Decrease

Monday, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office is expected to release the retail sales report for June at 3.00 am ET. Retail sales are forecast to decline calendar adjusted 1% year-on-year in June, at a slower pace than a 1.6% decline recorded in May. Month-on-month, retail sales had decreased 0.2% in May, reversing a 0.4% rise logged in April.

Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Oil steady as dollar offsets Russia tension

SINGAPORE (AP) - Oil prices were steady Monday in Asia above $114 a barrel as a strengthening dollar offset continuing tensions between the U.S. and Russian over the conflict in Georgia.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery was down 5 cents at $114.54 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore. The contract tumbled $6.59 on Friday to settle at $114.59 a barrel.

"If the U.S. dollar is rising, commodities take a hit. It's been a huge factor." said Gavin Wendt, head of mining and resources research at consultancy Fat Prophets in Sydney.

Speaking at an economic conference Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he would "act as necessary" to control inflation comments which helped strengthen the dollar against rival currencies.

A falling dollar encourages selling from investors who bought crude oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation and weakness in the U.S. currency. The euro fell to $1.4760 on Monday.

Wendt said he expects oil prices to rise this year as global demand for energy, led by developing economies such as China and India, outstrip supplies.

"We may see this rally in the U.S. dollar continue in the short-term, but you have to differentiate between speculation and the underlying demand for commodities," Wendt said. "The majority of the increase in commodities over the last five years has been driven by demand from China and the emerging economies being so great that supplies haven't been able to keep up."

Supporting oil prices are ongoing tensions between Russia and the U.S. over Russia's brief war in the former Soviet republic Georgia.

Russia pulled the bulk of its troops and tanks out Friday under a cease-fire agreement, but built up its forces in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region. They also left other military posts at locations inside Georgia proper.

A U.S. Navy destroyer loaded with humanitarian aid reached Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi on Sunday, a move that a Russian general suggested would worsen tensions between the former Cold War foes.

The war erupted Aug. 7 as Georgia launched a massive artillery barrage targeting the Russian-backed separatist province of South Ossetia. Russian forces repelled the offensive and drove deep into Georgia, taking crucial positions across the country.

The U.S. and EU say both those moves violated Russia's commitments.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.39 cent to $3.135 a gallon, while gasoline prices fell 1.86 cent to $2.85 a gallon. Natural gas futures increased 3.0 cents to $7.873 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, October Brent crude rose 22 cents to $114.10 a barrel.

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

USD Slumps as Oil Spikes by Korman Tam

The dollar tumbled across the board in the Thursday session on the heels of a rally in oil, which jumped to its highest level in 2 ½-weeks to $121.94 per barrel. The spike higher in crude prices was prompted by a combination of heightened geopolitical uncertainty stemming from Russia's decision to halt cooperation with NATO and warnings that Saudi Arabia may scale back its recent increase in production amid declining prices. The move higher in oil sent the greenback lower, falling near the 1.49-level against the euro and 108.10 versus the yen.

The US economic reports released today saw improvements in both weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Weekly jobless claims improved to 432k, down from 450k a week earlier. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey was better than expected at -12.7 in August, versus calls for an improvement to -14.0 from -16.3 in the previous month. The July leading indicators deteriorated to -0.7%, compared with -0.1% from June.

Traders will look ahead to tomorrow's speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke slated for 10:00 AM. His speech will be closely scrutinized for hints on future policy moves and any indications of support for troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Forex Forecast: 5 Key Events for the Market This Week 08-25-08

Monday, 25 August 2008

Previous Articles

• Aug 25 - Forex Forecast: 5 Key Events for the Market This Week 08-25-08
  
• Aug 22 - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 08.25.08
  
• Aug 22 - British Pound Vulnerable to Sharp Pullback Next Week
  
• Aug 22 - Pound Plummets As Growth Stalls, Euro Follows Suit
  
• Aug 22 - Euro Open: UK Gross Domestic Product to Print at 15-Year Low
  
• Aug 21 - Forex Emerging Markets Weekly - August 21, 2008
  
• Aug 21 - Forex Trading Forecast: US Dollar to Weaken Before Further Rallies
  
• Aug 21 - Euro Open: Will Switzerland Follow the EU into Recession?
  
• Aug 21 - Pound Reverses Despite U.K. Retail Sales Rebound, Euro Heavy As PMI Remains In Contraction
  
• Aug 20 - Can Chinese Demand Keep Japan Out of Recession?
  
• Aug 20 - Dollar May Drop Without Action From The Fed
  
• Aug 20 - Australian Dollar Could Fall Like a Rock
  
• Aug 20 - BoE Voted 7-1-1 to Leave Rates Unchanged, Besley Votes For Hike.
  
• Aug 20 - Euro Open: Is The Bank of England Closer to Cutting Interest Rates?
  
• Aug 19 - Forex Seasonality Update: We Forecast USDCAD Declines
  
• Aug 19 - Euro Falls As German ZEW Shows Current Conditions Worsening
  
• Aug 19 - A Drop in U.S. Housing Starts Would Validate EURUSD Technical Outlook
  
• Aug 19 - Euro Open: Will Producer Prices Help the ECB Cut Interest Rates?
  
• Aug 18 - Japanese Yen Forecast Ahead of BoJ Meeting
  
• Aug 15 - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast 08.18.08
  

Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist

Forex traders should beware of event risk for the US dollar this week, as most economic releases will be out of the US. Indeed, house prices, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP will all hit the wires. However, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's August meeting may be the event to watch, especially if any commentary signals any sort of bias within the FOMC. The Euro will not be spared either, though, as Euro-zone CPI is on tap on Friday.

• US S&P/Case Schiller Home Prices, Consumer Confidence – August 26
On Tuesday, the release of US economic data may highlight some of the reasons why traders are ramping up speculation that the country is in midst of a recession. Indeed, at 9:00 EDT, the S&P/Case-Schiller index of home prices is likely to fall sharply for the twenty-first consecutive month in June. Later in the morning at 10:00 EDT, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index is forecasted to edge up to a reading of 53.0 in August from 51.9. While US economic conditions haven't improved in any way, shape, or form, we saw last month that a drop in oil prices helped to boost sentiment and lower inflation expectations. Since commodities plunged for much of August, there is potential for there to be a similar increase in confidence which would be bullish for the US dollar. However, since the US housing, services, and manufacturing sectors all remain weak while labor market conditions deteriorate, there is certainly downside risk for this release as well.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes from August 5 – August 26
The release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting on August 5 at 14:00 EDT. During that meeting the Fed left rates steady, though one member – Richard Fisher – dissented for the fifth consecutive time as he remains the most hawkish of the bunch. The key thing to watch for in the release of the minutes is the commentary amongst the FOMC members regarding inflation, especially in light of July's record oil prices. Currently, fed fund futures are betting that the Fed will raise rates by over 50bps within the next 12 months. However, if the FOMC members brush off the inflation factors and focus instead on shaky financial market conditions and the significant US economic slowdown, futures may start to become more aggressive in pricing in either steady rates or even a cut, which could weigh heavily on the US Dollar.

• US Durable Goods Orders – August 27
Can Boeing help the US durable goods orders figure to rebound? Unlikely, as airline orders only improved very slightly in July to 70, up from 62 in June. While the headline will have the most impact on forex trading, the markets should keep an eye on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, as this number serves as a leading indicator for business investment. The reading has fallen negative during 4 of the past 6 months, though it did rise 1.4 percent last month. Overall, though, durable goods are forecasted to rise a tepid 0.1 percent, which could ultimately lead the greenback lower.

• US Gross Domestic Product (2Q P) – August 28
On Thursday, the second reading of Q2 GDP for the US will hit the wires at 8:30 EDT. The figure is anticipated to be revised all the way up to a whopping 2.7 percent from initial estimates of 1.9 percent, thanks to stronger-than-expected exports in the month of June. Likewise, surprisingly large increases in wholesales and business inventories in June could provide a positive lift. While I remain skeptical of this sudden "rebound" in economic expansion in light of the contraction in business activity for the services and manufacturing sectors, along with the broad deterioration in the labor markets, a reading in line with or more than forecasts should ignite a US Dollar rally.

• Euro-zone Consumer Price Index Estimate – August 29
Eurostat estimates for Euro-zone CPI are projected to show at 5:00 EDT that inflation held at a 4.0 percent pace in August. Given European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's more bearish stance on economic growth, a weaker-than-expected CPI reading could exacerbate the market's speculation that the central bank will cut rates within the next year. On the other hand, a jump in CPI could be just the thing to get traders to remember just how hawkish Mr. Trichet can be and send the euro higher.

Singapore Annual Inflation Slows in July

Monday, the Statistics Singapore announced that the country's consumer price index, or CPI increased 6.5% year-over-year in July, slower than the 7.5% rise recorded in June.

Food prices increased 8.5% in July over a year ago period, while housing costs rose 12.5%. At the same time, transport and communication climbed 3.4%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI moved up 1.2% in July, and it grew 0.4% on seasonally adjusted basis. Food prices rose 0.7%, while transport and communication cost decreased 0.6% compared to prior month.

For January to July period, consumer prices increased 7% on an annual basis. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Pound Falls To Two-Year Low

By Dan Molinski

The U.K. pound fell to a fresh two-year low against the dollar Friday after U.K. economic growth rates hit their lowest level since 1992, signaling a looming recession.

Broad strength in the U.S. dollar also pushed sterling lower, as a decline in oil prices Friday improved the overall U.S. economic outlook and hopes for a recovery, sending the dollar higher virtually across the board. Crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $114.59 a barrel, down $6.59.

The pound fell to as low as $1.8507 Friday, its lowest point since July 2006, and down 14% from a 27-year ...

Sinopec first-half Profit declines - Update

Sunday, Sinopec Corp. reported a fall in its profit for the first-half, compared to last year.Net profit attributable to shareholders in accordance with IFRS standards declined 77.3% to RMB 8.26 billion or RMB 0.064 per share, compared to RMB 36.38 billion or RMB 0.420 per share in the same period last year.

Operating profit was down 86.5% at RMB 7.22 billion versus RMB 53.59 billion in the prior year.

Net profit in accordance with PRC accounting standards was down 73.4% in the period at RMB 9.34 billion or 0.076 RMB per share, compared to RMB 35.11 billion or RMB 0.405 per share last year.

In the first half, the Company produced 147.38 million barrels of crude oil and 144.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, up 2.4% and 3.3% respectively over the same period of last year.

International crude oil prices rose high during the six-month period, and the average Platt's Brent spot price was US$109.14 per barrel, up 72.53% over prior year.

For the second half, Sinopec expects lower demands for chemical products and domestic refining business to be under continued pressure. The company plans to produce 21.24 million tonnes of crude oil and 4.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the coming six-month period.

SNP last traded at $100 on the NYSE. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Thai baht drops to 4-day low of 34.1050 versus dollar

The Thai Baht weakened to a 4-day low of 34.1050 against the US dollar on Monday morning in Asia.

The pair, which closed last week's trading at 33.9650, is currently trading at 34.1250. Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved